A decade after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the nation and caused chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few government figures or campaigners want to engage with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two articles that aim for neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments range over national emblems, levies, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has has valuable insights to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
