Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are waged: optimistic declarations are released from multiple capitals. Significant resources is devoted on managing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from enemy soil, a ability enabled by current data. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been deployed to engage hostile cruise missiles roared overhead – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: several firings fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely delivered by allied countries. Every firing shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: maybe the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a automatic firearm engaged a aerial vehicle close by, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its target.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: multiple fatalities, devastation and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a reliance that regional partners are demonstrably unable to substitute in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from US administration sparked intense emotion, discussion and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new initiative from US leadership adheres to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This cycle will, no doubt, endure.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame particular leaders of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration functions according to a principle well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration presumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to abandon the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from believing that the current condition will not shift further in its advantage in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing people and territory but averting a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its favour.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not shift toward internal issues. And although their mission will now be much harder after current events, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new proposals based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require sustained allied backing.
