It was two months in the past when the young forward found himself on the Stadium of Light pitch, seeming perplexed while Unai Emery berated him for missing a through-ball. Back then, with the team endured a six-game winless run, the question was if his displays were a symptom or the source of the team's more general malaise.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
On Sunday, in contrast, the manager's outburst proved to be decidedly more positive. When Rogers swept in his brace-sealing goal to restore his side's advantage, the boss discarded his coat, opened his arms and roared. Villa continued to a tenth straight victory and having failed to win any of their first six fixtures, find themselves just three points behind the leaders Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Serious Challengers?
It remains a particularly tough query to resolve. The historical record, a general sense of Villa, argues against it. Furthermore, they've rarely been wholly dominant during this run, while the positive results have stacked up.
Per the data, in only two games have Villa posted an xG more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a side which has strung together 10 in a row, they appear weirdly vulnerable – yet currently the tight outcomes are swinging for them.
The Winning Formula
The prevailing tactic seems to be to exchange chances with an opponent before hoping Rogers to rescue them with two crisp finishes. This was the case against Leeds, it transpired against West Ham, and again versus Manchester United.
His opener originated from a brilliant finish, arced right inside the post from the corner of the box. The follow-up goal proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of goal number one capitalizing on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Can It Last?
Reason suggests otherwise. During the latest victory, Manchester United registered more shots and more shots on target. The team has won each of their last eight by a single goal. The defence has been breached in all except one of those fixtures.
A reversion to average may well be the biggest rival Villa must confront as the season progresses. The forward, almost certainly, will not continue to drilling the ball into the top corner indefinitely.
A Case for Belief
Maybe there exists a different scenario where, instead of results trending towards performances, the level of play rises to match the results. Vital cogs may yet return to peak condition.
- The main striker could start scoring again.
- The winger could transform into the player he resembled in Germany.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres will eventually regain fitness, strengthening a sometimes shaky backline.
This could contain the potential of a genuine bid, yet it seems unlikely can persist in leaning entirely on one man.
Savoring the Moment
Yet, this is a surprise. Few believed Villa would occupy third at Christmas. And without a doubt two months ago, nobody thought Rogers by the end of the year would be leading a title charge while establishing himself as an essential player for the national team.
The current run must be cherished for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. As Rogers faced the home supporters when the game ended orchestrating the applause, he seemed to be loving the experience. Which he fully merits. Such periods are uncommon in the sport and should be relished.
